Published Articles
  • "In Their Own Words: Palma Outlines Specialty Rx Payment Strategies". Drug Benefit News, 11 (3) February 5, 2010. (Click Here to Download)
  • "Is your care management program delivering results?" Ian Duncan, FSA, FIA, FCIA, MAAA. Benefits and Compensation Digest, December 2009. (Click Here to Download)
  • "Health Claims Savings – The Search for Credible Analysis" Ian Duncan, FSA, FIA, FCIA, MAAA. Contingencies, November/December 2009. (Click Here to Download)
  • “Health Plans Tackle DM: Software innovations enable health plans to structure results-driven disease-management programs and demonstrate true ROI” Christian Birkmeyer and Ian Duncan, FSA FIA FCIA MAAA. June 2009 (Click to read more)
  • “Quantifying Care Management: Emerging Technology Quantifies ROI for Care Management Programs” Christian Birkmeyer and Ian Duncan, FSA, FIA, FCIA, MAAA. June 1, 2009 (Click to read more)
  • "Trim Expenses and Improve Subrogation Settlement Ratios" Timothy E. Cahill And Blaise J. Guzewicz, J. D. The Subrogator, Spring/Summer 2009. (Click Here to Download)
  • "Advanced subrogation software identifies OPL claims before they are paid" Timothy E. Cahil. Managed Care Outlook 22 (2), January 2009. (Click Here to Download)
  • “Harnessing the Forces of Marketing and Innovation" Ian Duncan FSA, MAAA (This essay won second prize in a thought-leadership essay contest sponsored by the Society of Actuaries) (Click to read more)
  • "Predictive Modeling, Stratification Improve Disease Management Risk Profiling" Ian Duncan, FSA,FIA,FCIA,MAAA. November 1, 2008 (Click to read more)
  • "Care And Disease Management: An Actuarial Response" Ian Duncan. Benefits & Compensation Digest, 42 (8) August 2005. (Click Here to Download)
  • "A comparative analysis of chronic and non-chronic insured commercial member cost trends" by Ian Duncan, Robert Bachler and Iver Juster. North American Actuarial Journal, 10 (4) October 2006. (Click Here to Download)
  • "Its time for the Industry to move on from ROI" by Ian Duncan, from Disease Management 7 (3) 2004.
    (Click Here to Download)
  • "Evaluating the Results of Care Management Interventions: Comparative Analysis of Different Outcomes Measures" by Henry Dove, Ph.D. and Ian Duncan, FSA, MAAA. Available in bound paperback for $35, including S&H
    (Click to Order)
    • Paper 1: Programs and Interventions describe popular care interventions that managed care organizations have used to change patients' and providers' utilization patterns.
    • Paper 2: Actuarial Issues in Care Management Interventions discusses methodological and measurement issues faced by actuaries who work or consult in the healthcare industry.
    • Paper 3: Selective Literature Review of Care Management Interventions reviews the existing literature on program evaluation, particularly the literature regarding reductions in cost and improvement in clinical quality, and discusses in more detail results as published in the peer-reviewed literature.
    • Paper 4: Understanding the Economics of Disease Management Programs presents an economic model for care management interventions. This paper also discusses the underlying components of a disease management program and how these components are structured and interact to drive the outcomes.
    • Paper 5: Outcomes and Outcome Measurement Methodologies survey frequently encountered outcomes measurement methodologies.
    • Paper 6: An Actuarial Methodology for Evaluating Disease Management Outcomes defines an actuarial methodology for structuring a study and assessing outcomes. The model is applied and some of its key assumptions are tested in Part 3 of the study. Part 3 (in progress; expected publication mid-2005): Practical Applications
    • Paper 7: A comparative analysis of chronic and non-chronic population trend (joint study with American Re HealthCare).
    • Paper 8: Practical Application of different outcomes measurement methodologies (joint study with Highmark).
  • "A comparative analysis of claims-based methods of health risk assessment." Robert Cumming, FSA MAAA, for the Society of Actuaries (2002). The most comprehensive evaluation published comparing different risk-adjustment and predictive models. Available Free of Charge on Request. (Click here to Request a Copy)
  • "Does a High Deductible Plan Lead to Good Purchasing Decisions?" Ian Duncan. Contingencies, July/August 2004. (Click Here to Download)
  • "New, integrated model of care targets risk rather than disease" Published in Disease Management Advisor, April 2007. Dorothy Brooks, editor. (Click Here to Download)
  • "Population Risk Management", Health Section News, Society of Actuaries. June, 2002. (Click to read more)
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